Baku Edition vol 13,  week 9  
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Nabucco at Center of Gas Politics
February 03, 2010 15:28 PM
Running one of Europe's most controversial infrastructure projects can at times get a little intense. In the Floridotower, overlooking central Vienna, Reinhard Mitschek, managing director of Nabucco Gas Pipeline project, pauses for breath.

"Most weeks are intensive," he says. "Monday and Friday are meetings in Austria but the rest of the week is spent travelling to meet shareholders, suppliers, customers, clients and lenders. This can take me to Turkey, to Asia, to Azerbaijan, to elsewhere."
As well as traveling, there is the small matter of politics. The 3,300-kilometer pipeline, will link Western Europe to the Caspian region, theoretically breaking Russia's monopoly on gas supplied to the West, a move that places it at the heart of a power play over who supplies Europe with gas.

This week, Mr. Mitschek is in Tanzania, for a two week trekking vacation that he says will help recharge his batteries for the next 12 months, a year that will define the future of the project. Construction is planned to start in 2011, but before that can happen there is the issue of financing the pipeline, whose investment costs amount to about €7.9 billion ($11.03 billion).

"You could say 2010 is indeed the Nabucco year," says Mr. Mitschek. "A lot now depends on a successful open season this year," the open season being the tendering process during which gas traders can buy transport capacity in the planned pipeline.

"Once we have those contracts, our feeling is that the financing will not be a hurdle for the project. Financial institutions, even commercial banks, will come back as they prefer infrastructure projects with 25 years transportation contracts more than volatile and risky businesses."

The way Mr. Mitschek sees it, European gas consumption is increasing while production is declining. He says that consumption is around 500 billion cubic meters a year and even if consumption rates stay relatively low the gas import will need to increase by around 150 billion cubic meters within the next decade because the production in Europe will be constantly decreasing. Nabucco, whose first supplies will run in 2014, will help fill this need.

"The biggest mistake we can do is lean back and say, 'O.K. we have enough gas,'" he says. "To do nothing will be discovered as a big mistake in 2 or 3 years time. That is valid across Europe. If the alternative gas reserves outside the European Union are sold to China, the Far East and the U.S. they will be lost to Europe not just for five years but for the next 30 years.

"It is expected that in the EU the consumption of gas will increase by approximately 1 per cent a year. It is a matter of fact that the production of gas in Europe will go down, which will open the gap and that has to be closed."

It is a gap the Kremlin is also looking to close. It's little over a year since Russia cut supplies to Ukraine following a series of disputes over how much Ukraine must pay for its gas. The move had a direct effect on suppliers to western Europe as most of the pipelines from Russia currently run through Ukraine. It also hardened the resolve of the EU to reduce its dependence upon Russian gas.

"Nabucco is not designed to substitute Russian gas," says Mr. Mitschek. "Nabucco is designed to offer complementary alternative gas quantities in addition to the Russian quantities. The whole south eastern European region and Turkey will be in the position to receive alternative gas quantities in addition to Russian gas for their markets."

Not wanting to be left behind the Russian government is planning two of its own new gas pipelines to Europe: the Nord Stream, which will run direct from Russia to Germany under the Baltic sea, and the South Stream, which will run from southern Russia under the Black sea to Bulgaria.

Both pipelines are being built with Russian energy company Gazprom and will compete directly with Nabucco. More importantly, with Italy's involvement with the South Stream project and Germany's involvement in Nord Stream, questions have been raised over whether European countries are too diversified in their interests for a project such as Nabucco.

"Of course we expect additional gas imports to Europe," says Mr. Mitschek. "There is room for more than one project. I don't have the business model for Nord Stream but it will have different target markets than Nabucco. We have great support from the European Commission. Up to €200 million have been pledged by the commission for the project, which will be confirmed once it has been approved by the European parliament."

Others have challenged the viability of Nabucco's ability to attract gas suppliers. In December Bernstein Research published findings which argued that it had "serious doubts regarding the reliability of supply from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan where Nabucco is targeting more than half of the planned 31 billion cubic meters per year capacity." Other proposed gas sources in Egypt and Iraq, "look rather exotic from the logistical point of view," it added.

While in November the International Energy Agency said that the global gas market is likely to remain oversupplied until 2015 and gloval demand is expected to rise by an average of 1.5% per year in the period to 2030.

"There are concerns," admits Mr. Mitschek, "that is correct. But they are not concerns that we share fortunately."

"We are in close contact with the Shah Deniz consortium in Azerbaijan [a BP led consortium of Azerbaijan's largest gas field]. Several of Nabucco shareholders are already engaged in exploration and production activities in central Asia and we have good contacts in Iraq."

It's been seven years since Mr. Mitschek originally met with a group of European executives—MOL Group and RWE AG are among Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH's shareholders—to celebrate the signing of the agreement to build the pipeline. Dining in Vienna, they decided to name the pipeline after the production of Verdi's biblical story they had just enjoyed at the Vienna State Opera house. One of the main themes of Verdi's Nabucco is freedom from bondage. Mr. Mitschek will be hoping this is the year the project finally breaks free.
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