Summary

Stratfor sources have indicated that Iranian naval exercises scheduled to take place by Feb. 19 have been delayed or possibly canceled. Given other recent moves both by the United States and Iran aimed at reducing bilateral tensions, the apparent delay may have been motivated by a desire to facilitate talks on Iran’s nuclear program, among other issues.

Analysis

Iranian military exercises scheduled to take place by Feb. 19 in the Strait of Hormuz appear to have been delayed, with one Stratfor source reporting that the exercises have been canceled outright. Another Stratfor Iranian source indicated Iran’s leadership is currently leaning toward canceling the exercises as a reciprocal gesture after the United States on Jan. 15 delayed military exercises with Israel.

A move to delay the war games would be very unusual, as Iran has typically followed through on its announced military exercises or at least provided a reason for their delay. The apparent delay notably comes after Iran stepped back from its threats on closing the Strait of Hormuz made during a previous set of war games in late December 2011 and early January 2012. Though these exercises may still take place at a later date, an Iranian decision to to wait to conduct them combined with other moves to reduce tensions may indicate Tehran is interested in facilitating backchannel talks with the United States.

The Great Prophet VII war games were to be organized by the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and coincide with parallel exercises organized by the Artesh, Iran’s regular armed forces. The Great Prophet war games have become more or less annual events for Iran and have usually been accompanied by a great deal of Iranian media attention because new weapons systems are often featured during the exercises. (And given this history, some sort of technical delay with a new weapon that was intended to be featured cannot be ruled out.) However, unlike previous years, this year’s events have been mentioned very little since they were announced during the Iranian navy’s exercises in late December.

The potential delay (or cancellation) of the exercises is especially significant because of the timing. In late December and early January 2012, as the United States was preparing to levy sanctions on Iran’s ability to engage in financial transactions and to export oil, Iran retaliated by threatening to close down the Strait of Hormuz, arguably raising tensions between the two countries to the highest level in years. Since that point, both the United States and Iran have made moves to ease tensions -- Iran backed off its rhetoric on the strait and the United States delayed its planned joint ballistic missile defense exercises with Israel (which are now slated to take place in October).

Delaying the Great Prophet VII military exercises in the strait would be a significant step by the Iranians toward reducing tensions in the hope of advancing backchannel negotiations between the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office. These issues include not only Iran’s nuclear program, but also international efforts to oust the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, the balance of power in the Persian Gulf as well as Iraq and the U.S. exit strategy in Afghanistan.

In recent weeks, there have been reports of communication between the United States and Iran, and numerous U.S. officials have issued statements about the need to pursue diplomacy amid increasing speculation about a potential Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In addition, the P-5+1 Group headquartered in Brussels has acknowledged receipt of a letter from the Iranian national security chief on Tehran seeking to revive talks regarding its controversial nuclear program.

Since the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan -- Iran’s western and eastern neighbors, respectively -- Tehran has intensified its rhetoric and military maneuvers, with the IRGC and the Artesh (Iran’s army) conducting regular drills on both Iranian soil and in the Persian Gulf waters several times each year. Their chief purpose has been to ensure the highest state of military preparedness in the face of potential threat of an attack as well as sending a message to the United States and its allies that the cost of war would be very high.

Any military exercise entails both opportunity and risk. The exercises can strengthen a potential adversary’s perception of Iran’s military capabilities, but they can also expose vulnerabilities or weaknesses that could degrade that perception. There are numerous factors entailed in deciding to hold or cancel an exercise, not all of which reach all the way up to Iran’s supreme leader. But given the circumstances and the curious silence that has surrounded the Great Prophet exercises, there is considerable potential that the apparent delay is part of Iran’s effort toward reducing tensions with the United States that it has apparently decided are doing the country more harm than good. STRATFOR